"Okay, so what is the market actually doing right now?" That question comes up at nearly every kitchen table I sit at this fall. Buyers want to know if they finally have some leverage. Sellers want to know if they missed their window.
This Southern Maryland housing market update answers both, county by county, using the most recent full month of data. Based on Bright MLS data for September 2026, prices across St. Mary's, Calvert, and Charles Counties are holding steady, but the pace has changed. Homes are taking longer to sell, more listings are sitting on the market, and far fewer homes went under contract than a year ago.
The reason is mostly mortgage rates. Freddie Mac's weekly average for a 30-year fixed loan was 7.24% on October 29, 2026, compared with 6.17% a year earlier. That gap is enough to push some buyers out of their price range, and it shows up in every number below.
The short version: this is not a crash, and it is not the frenzy of a few years ago. It is a slower, more negotiable market where pricing and preparation decide who does well.
Southern Maryland Housing Market Update: What Is Happening Right Now?
The Southern Maryland housing market is cooling in pace, not in price. In September 2026, the median sold price across the three counties was $455,000, up 1.0% from September 2025, while active listings rose 24.4% and new contracts fell 21.0%.
In plain terms, buyers have more choices and more time than they did last fall, and sellers are facing more competition from other listings. Whether that tilts toward buyers or sellers depends heavily on the county and price point, which I break down in my guide to whether it's a buyer's or seller's market in Southern Maryland.
Quick facts (Bright MLS data, September 2026, St. Mary's, Calvert, and Charles Counties combined):
Median sold price: $455,000, up 1.0% from $450,500 in September 2025
Active listings: 1,337, up 24.4% from 1,075 a year earlier
Months of supply: 3.20, up from 2.67 a year earlier
Median days on market: 29 days, up from 19 days a year earlier
New pending sales: 381, down 21.0% from 482 a year earlier
Why Did the Southern Maryland Market Slow Down This Fall?
Higher mortgage rates are the main reason. With the 30-year fixed average back above 7% this fall, fewer buyers are signing contracts, even though plenty of them are still out looking.
Rates are doing most of the work
According to Freddie Mac, the average 30-year fixed rate was 7.24% on October 29, 2026, down slightly from 7.32% the week before but more than a full point above the 6.17% average a year ago. To put that in real dollars, the monthly principal and interest on a $400,000 loan is about $2,726 at 7.24%, compared with about $2,442 at 6.17%. That is roughly $284 more per month for the same house, before taxes and insurance.
Those are national survey averages, not a quote. Your own rate depends on your credit, loan type, and down payment, so a licensed lender is the only one who can give you real numbers.
Fewer homes are going under contract
New pending sales are the best early signal of where closed sales are headed. In September 2026, Southern Maryland recorded 381 new pending sales, down 21.0% from a year earlier, and pending sales fell year over year in all three counties. Bright MLS also reported that showings across the region were down 6.3%.
That tells me buyers are being more selective, not that they have disappeared. Year-to-date closed sales through September were still 4.2% ahead of 2025, so the slowdown is recent.
The market is definitely still moving, but buyers are definitely more hesitant than they have been in the past. I have had military buyers that have changed their minds and decided to live on base for a year, first time homebuyers that have decided to stay put a little longer. On the other hand, I still had four closings in October. We are still seeing transactions, they days on market are just a little higher than before.
Are Home Prices Dropping in Southern Maryland?
No, not across the region. Prices are essentially flat: the year-to-date median sold price through September 2026 was $449,900, compared with $450,000 for the same period in 2025.
Detached homes versus all homes
The $455,000 median includes townhomes and condos. For detached single-family homes alone, Bright MLS reported a September 2026 median sold price of $478,590, down 1.8% from $487,200 a year earlier. That small dip is worth watching, but it is not a sign of a falling market on its own.
If you want the longer-term view of what homes are worth across the three counties, I cover that in Southern Maryland home values in 2026.
Sellers are getting a little less than their first asking price
One number most market reports skip is the sold-to-original-list-price ratio. It compares what a home finally sold for with the price it first hit the market at. In September 2026, homes in Calvert County sold for an average of 96.4% of their original list price, the lowest September figure in five years, based on Bright MLS data from ShowingTime. Charles County came in at 97.4% and St. Mary's County at 98.5%.
On a $475,000 list price, the gap between 96.4% and full price is about $17,000. That is usually the cost of starting too high and reducing later.
Is Inventory Rising in Southern Maryland?
Yes. Active listings across the three counties reached 1,337 in September 2026, up 24.4% from a year earlier and up 8.9% from August.
More homes than any recent September
Each county had more active listings this September than in any September of the past five years, based on Bright MLS data from ShowingTime. New listings were also up 4.6% regionally, so more sellers are coming to market while fewer buyers are signing contracts.
Still not a flood
Months of supply measures how long it would take to sell every active listing at the current pace of sales. Southern Maryland sat at 3.20 months in September 2026, up from 2.67 a year earlier. Bright MLS also noted that single-family inventory in the region is still below pre-pandemic levels, so this is a return toward normal, not an oversupply.
What Does This Market Mean for Buyers?
Buyers have more room to negotiate than they did a year ago, especially on homes that have been listed for a few weeks. The trade-off is a higher monthly payment because of rates.
Where you have leverage
With median days on market up to 29 days regionally, you will see more homes that have been sitting long enough for the seller to listen. That can mean room on price, repairs after inspection, or a seller contribution toward your closing costs. Any seller contribution has to be requested and negotiated in your offer.
Some buyers are also asking sellers to help pay for a temporary or permanent rate buydown. Whether that makes more sense than a price reduction depends on your loan and how long you plan to keep it, which is a question for your lender. If you are weighing whether to move now or hold off, my take on whether now is a good time to buy or wait walks through both sides.
Where you still need to move fast
The best homes still sell quickly. In St. Mary's County, the median home sold in 16 days in September 2026. A move-in-ready home priced right will not wait for you to think about it over the weekend, even in a slower market.
[AMANDA: add a real example from your experience here]
What Does This Market Mean for Sellers?
Sellers can still sell well, but the margin for error is smaller. With more competing listings and fewer contracts, pricing correctly on day one matters more than it has in several years.
Price for the market you are in
Buyers this fall are comparing your home with more options than they had last year. The homes that start too high tend to sit, take a reduction, and still sell for less than if they had been priced right at launch. Before you pick a number, read my guide on what price you should list your home for in Southern Maryland, and if you want a starting point for your own house, request a home value estimate.
Expect more requests from buyers
In a market like this one, buyers are more likely to ask for closing cost help, repairs, or a rate buydown contribution. Plan for that in your bottom line before you list, so a reasonable request does not feel like a surprise. Condition matters more, too, because buyers with choices skip the homes that need work.
How Does the Market Differ in St. Mary's, Calvert, and Charles Counties?
The three counties are moving in different directions this fall. St. Mary's County is still the tightest, Calvert County saw the biggest jump in inventory, and Charles County is the slowest-moving of the three. For a broader look at how the counties compare beyond market numbers, see my guide comparing Calvert, Charles, and St. Mary's Counties.
St. Mary's County
Based on Bright MLS data for September 2026, St. Mary's County had a median sold price of $425,000, up 3.8% from $409,450 a year earlier. It was the only county with a clear year-over-year price gain. Homes sold in a median of 16 days, the fastest of the three, and months of supply was 2.46, the lowest in the region.
The warning sign is volume. Closed sales fell 28.5% to 93, new pending sales fell 34.5%, and new listings fell 13.3%. Prices are holding because so few homes are for sale, not because demand is surging. Much of the county's housing demand is tied to Naval Air Station (NAS) Patuxent River in Lexington Park, and in my experience, buyers looking in Lexington Park, California, and Hollywood along the MD 235 corridor often arrive with set report dates and firm timelines.
[AMANDA: add a real example from your experience here]
Calvert County
Calvert County's median sold price was $475,000 in September 2026, exactly the same as September 2025. Closed sales rose 11.2% to 99, and showings were up 9.4%, the only county where showing activity increased.
Inventory is the big story here. Active listings jumped 52.0% to 339, new listings rose 21.0%, and months of supply climbed to 3.23. Median days on market rose by 14 days to 25. Buyers are still touring homes along the MD 4 corridor in Prince Frederick, Huntingtown, and Dunkirk, and down to Lusby and Solomons, but they now have far more to choose from. That is why Calvert's sold-to-original-list ratio slipped to 96.4%.
Charles County
Charles County's median sold price was $459,999 in September 2026, down 1.1% from $465,000 a year earlier. Closed sales were nearly flat at 184, up 0.5%.
Charles is the slowest market of the three. Homes sold in a median of 39 days, up 14 days from a year ago, and the county had 722 active listings and 3.59 months of supply, both the highest in Southern Maryland. New pending sales fell 20.1%. For buyers looking in Waldorf, St. Charles, La Plata, Bryans Road, or Indian Head, that means real selection and time to compare. For sellers along the US 301 corridor, it means pricing against a lot of nearby competition.
What Do People Get Wrong About the Southern Maryland Market Right Now?
"Prices are falling." Not regionally. The median sold price was up 1.0% in September 2026, and the year-to-date median was essentially unchanged from 2025.
"More inventory means every home is sitting." In St. Mary's County, the median home still sold in 16 days. Well-priced homes in good condition continue to move quickly in all three counties.
"One month's median tells you the trend." Monthly medians can swing. Charles County's median went from $435,000 in August to $459,999 in September 2026. The year-to-date median of $440,000 is a steadier read.
"Waiting for lower rates will get me a better deal." Nobody can promise when rates will fall. If they do, more buyers usually come back at the same time, which can mean more competition for the same homes.
"Southern Maryland is one market." St. Mary's County had 2.46 months of supply in September 2026, while Charles County had 3.59. Those are different conditions for buyers and sellers.
Frequently Asked Questions About the Housing Market in Southern Maryland
What is the median home price in Southern Maryland right now?
The median sold price across St. Mary's, Calvert, and Charles Counties was $455,000 in September 2026, based on Bright MLS data. By county, it was $425,000 in St. Mary's, $475,000 in Calvert, and $459,999 in Charles. For detached single-family homes only, the regional median was $478,590.
How long does it take to sell a house in Southern Maryland right now?
The regional median was 29 days on market in September 2026, up from 19 days a year earlier. St. Mary's County was fastest at 16 days, Calvert County was at 25 days, and Charles County was slowest at 39 days. Homes that are priced high or need work usually take longer than those medians.
Will Southern Maryland home prices drop this winter?
No one can promise which way prices will go. Bright MLS has said that, with more inventory and higher rates, some isolated markets could see year-over-year price declines. Across Southern Maryland, prices were flat to slightly up through September 2026, so any change is more likely to show up home by home than as a regional drop.
Is it harder to get a mortgage with rates above 7%?
Higher rates do not change loan approval rules, but they raise your monthly payment, which can lower the price you qualify for. Freddie Mac's 30-year fixed average was 7.24% on October 29, 2026. A licensed lender can show you how that rate affects your budget and whether a rate buydown is worth asking a seller to help with.
Do sellers in Southern Maryland still get full asking price?
Some do, but on average homes are selling slightly below their original list price. In September 2026, the average sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 98.5% in St. Mary's County, 97.4% in Charles County, and 96.4% in Calvert County. Pricing right from the first day is the best way to stay close to full price.
How often is this Southern Maryland market update refreshed?
This page is updated as new monthly Bright MLS data is released, so it always reflects the most recent full month available. Each update keeps the same address, so you can bookmark it. The current version covers September 2026, the latest full month of data as of late October 2026.
Talking Through What This Means for You
I'm Amanda Holmes, a Realtor with eXp Realty licensed in Maryland, Virginia, and Washington, D.C., and I work with buyers and sellers across St. Mary's, Calvert, and Charles Counties. The thing I watch closest right now is not the median price. It is how many homes in your price range and town went under contract in the last 30 days, because that tells us far more about your odds than any regional headline.
If you are thinking about buying or selling this winter or next spring, I am happy to pull those numbers for your area and walk through them with you. You can connect with me here whenever you are ready.
Amanda Holmes | Realtor, eXp Realty | Southern Maryland Real Estate
